KIIS: 61% of Ukrainians firmly reject giving up Donbas for guarantees; 62% ready to endure as long as needed

The main points

The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has published the results of a poll conducted on 8–16 October 2026. Despite massive strikes on energy infrastructure and pressure on Kyiv in negotiations, most Ukrainians are not ready for territorial concessions and are bracing for a long war.

Donbas for guarantees: no

61% of respondents consider it categorically unacceptable to hand all of Donbas to Russian control in exchange for security guarantees. 35% are ready for such a concession, although most of them acknowledge it would be a difficult condition. Another 4% are undecided. Compared with late July and early August there has been no statistically significant change.

The sociologists also compared two parts of the sample. Among those polled on 8–9 October, before the announcement of the Trump–Putin “diesel deal” and the subsequent pressure on Ukraine, 57% were categorically opposed. Among those polled on 10–16 October, 62% were. Formally the difference is within the margin of error, but KIIS concludes that, at least for now, the pressure campaign has not increased readiness to accept such a proposal.

In every region half or more reject the idea. The east (mainly Kharkiv region) has the most people who would allow it — 45% — but even there 51% are categorically opposed. In other regions 60–66% are against. In Kyiv, despite ballistic missile strikes and jet-drone attacks, 66% are categorically opposed — formally the highest figure of any region.

Who stands in the way of peace

Only 20% agree that Ukraine’s leadership should be more willing to compromise in negotiations, while 73% disagree. By contrast, 84% believe Russia wants to subjugate Ukraine and is therefore not ready for a peace in which Ukraine remains a sovereign state with a strong army; 12% disagree. 64% hold a consistently pro-Ukrainian position and 4% a consistently pro-Russian one.

How long to endure

62% of Ukrainians are ready to endure the war for as long as necessary; another 4% mention a year and 21% a shorter period. Among those polled on 8–9 October the figure was 60%, and among those polled on 10–16 October 63%. “We also do not see that the pressure campaign has led to demoralisation so far,” KIIS said. Kyiv residents’ resilience has not changed since mid-September.

As for timing, only 10% expect the war to end by the end of 2026, and another 13% in the first half of 2027. 56% expect it in the second half of 2027 or later, and 21% have no clear opinion.

How Ukrainians explain the energy strikes

92% believe that by striking economic targets Russia wants to destroy Ukraine’s economy and force Ukrainians to capitulate. A more pro-Russian interpretation — that Ukraine supposedly “provoked” the strikes — is shared by 5%.

Methodology

KIIS interviewed 1,031 adult citizens by telephone using a random sample of mobile numbers in all regions of government-controlled territory. Residents of occupied territories and those who left the country after 24 February 2022 were not included. The formal margin of error does not exceed 4% for values close to 50%; wartime conditions add some systematic deviation, but KIIS believes the results remain highly representative.

Why it matters

The poll was published on the eve of the Oslo talks, where the US, Ukraine and Europe are discussing a peace proposal to Russia. The data show the limits within which Ukrainian society is prepared to accept possible agreements: for most people, handing all of Donbas to Russia in exchange for security guarantees remains unacceptable.