Ukrainian intelligence: Russia's 9-month budget deficit is 37% above the annual plan

The headline numbers

Russia’s federal budget deficit for January–September 2026 reached 5.186 trillion roubles ($61.08 billion), or 2.2% of GDP. That is 37% more than the Kremlin had planned for the whole year, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU).

Russian authorities originally budgeted an annual deficit of 3.786 trillion roubles ($44.59 billion), or 1.6% of GDP. In September Russia’s finance ministry raised its forecast to 7.345 trillion roubles ($86.51 billion), or 3.2% of GDP — almost double.

Spending grows faster

According to the SZRU, budget spending over nine months rose by 14.5% year on year, to 34.825 trillion roubles ($410.19 billion). Revenue grew by only 10%, to 29.639 trillion roubles ($349.10 billion).

Oil and gas bring in less

The oil and gas sector contributed 17.2% less over the nine months — 5.471 trillion roubles ($64.44 billion). Non-oil-and-gas revenue, by contrast, rose by 18.8% to 24.168 trillion roubles ($284.66 billion). Value-added tax receipts increased by 27.4% to 13.467 trillion roubles ($158.62 billion).

However, the intelligence service stresses that the extra tax take has not offset the losses from oil and gas and the growth in spending. In other words, the burden of the war is increasingly falling on Russia’s domestic economy — on Russian companies and consumers who pay the taxes.

Where the Kremlin finds money

“The Russian government spends more than it receives and has to cover the difference with accumulated funds or borrowing,” the SZRU said. “Using the balances on budget accounts reduces the reserve for future spending. In the near term the Russian authorities will have to look for additional revenue by raising taxes, increase debt or cut budget spending.”

Ukrinform previously reported that Russia plans to keep military spending elevated for at least several years, so the government is looking for new sources of income — from windfall profits in mining to the sale of confiscated assets.

The link to the war

The fall in oil and gas revenue reflects sanctions, export restrictions and Ukrainian strikes on refineries and terminals. That is why both sanctions pressure from partners and long-range strikes on oil infrastructure matter so much to Kyiv — and why the US easing of sanctions on Russian diesel is seen in Ukraine as a gift to the Kremlin’s budget.

What it means

A deficit alone will not stop the war: Russia has reserves and can borrow on its domestic market. But the longer spending exceeds revenue, the less room for manoeuvre Moscow has — and the more painful every new blow to its oil exports becomes for the Russian economy. Full-year figures will be known in early 2027.

Read also

• How Ukrainian strikes have hit Russian refining: Defence Ministry: Ukraine has knocked out over 51% of Russia’s oil refining capacity.
• Another revenue stream under pressure: Russia’s Black Sea grain exports have collapsed.