Russia's Black Sea grain exports have collapsed and Moscow is looking for detours – Ukrainian intelligence

The numbers behind the slump

Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) has reported a sharp collapse in Russian grain exports via the Black Sea. “In the second ten days of September, Russia shipped only 347,000 tonnes of wheat, compared with 1.3 million tonnes in the same period of 2025. Only 72,500 tonnes passed through Novorossiysk, compared with 696,000 tonnes a year earlier,” the service said in a statement quoted by Ukrinform and Suspilne.

In other words, according to the SZRU, wheat shipments over those ten days fell almost fourfold, and through the main grain port of Novorossiysk almost tenfold.

The Baltic: a new terminal, but little capacity

According to the intelligence service, Moscow is trying to shift part of its cargo to the Baltic, northern ports and the Far East. The Ultramar terminal in Ust-Luga has started accepting grain; in September, requests for rail deliveries there amounted to about 260,000 tonnes.

Yet even at full load, the SZRU estimates, this route can handle only about 500,000 tonnes a month. By comparison, Russia’s southern ports have more than 60 million tonnes of annual capacity, and last year almost 90% of Russia’s seaborne grain exports went through them.

Murmansk: deep, year-round, but expensive

Russia is also trying to export grain via Murmansk. According to the intelligence service, Russian Railways approved the first shipment – 40,000 tonnes from Stavropol Krai. The port can take large vessels and operates all year round, but its distance from the main grain-growing regions makes the route too expensive. The SZRU puts the additional cost at $18–25 per tonne, or $720,000 to $1 million for a 40,000-tonne consignment.

China: growth with limits

In the east, Russia is increasing shipments through China. According to the intelligence service, the volume of the so-called “New Overland Grain Corridor” rose from 2.3 million tonnes in 2024 to 5.8 million tonnes in 2025, and about 9 million tonnes are expected in 2026.

But here, too, there are hard limits: rail infrastructure, terminal capacity, tariffs and phytosanitary requirements – including the lack of a phytosanitary protocol for Russian winter wheat – as well as Chinese quotas.

The intelligence service’s conclusion

“Russia cannot quickly create a replacement for the Black Sea system. That requires railways, elevators, transshipment, insurance, ships and regular buyers. In the Baltic and Murmansk there is clearly not enough of this. The Chinese route also has its own limits. Russia can scatter some of its grain across other routes. But it cannot assemble them into a new system of the same scale,” the SZRU concluded.

Context: stolen grain and diplomacy

At the same time, Ukraine and the Baltic states are tightening checks on the origin of grain to keep produce taken by Russia from the temporarily occupied territories off international markets. According to Suspilne, Lithuania is testing a new verification system and Latvia has begun taking grain samples for laboratory analysis. Ukraine’s Agrarian Policy Minister Taras Vysotskyi discussed countering the trade in stolen Ukrainian grain with his counterparts from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in Brussels.

The Black Sea grain blockade has also been raised at the highest level: German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul brought it up at a meeting with his Russian counterpart on 27 September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, but, as Suspilne notes, no concrete results were achieved.