Latvia: PM Kulbergs's party wins Saeima election with a record result

The result

Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’s United List won a clear victory in Latvia’s parliamentary election on 3 October. According to preliminary data from the Central Election Commission (updated on 4 October at 23:53), the party received 35.288% of the vote and 41 seats in the 100-seat Saeima. Latvian public broadcaster LSM, with 99.9% of votes counted, reported 42 seats — the final allocation will be confirmed by the commission.

Either way, it is the largest number of seats ever won by a single political force in the history of Latvia’s parliament, LSM notes. The previous record — 36 seats — was set by Latvijas ceļš (Latvia’s Way) in 1993.

Who else gets in

According to preliminary commission data, the 15th Saeima will also include:

• Latvia First — 13.08%, 17 seats;
• Sovereign Power / New Latvians — 11.71%, 15 seats;
• National Alliance — 8.90%, 10 seats;
• Progressives — 7.88%, 10 seats;
• New Unity — 6.36%, 7 seats.

The Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) received 4.40% and failed to clear the 5% threshold. As Ukrinform notes, this is the first time in the bloc’s 24-year history that it will not be in parliament. Turnout, according to the commission, was 51.79% — the lowest in Latvia’s history.

Who is Kulbergs

The United List emerged before the previous election from a split in the Union of Greens and Farmers; in 2022 it won about 11% and 15 seats. Kulbergs became prime minister after the collapse of Evika Siliņa’s New Unity-led government in the spring and had only a few months to show his style, LSM writes. Voters, in the broadcaster’s assessment, gave him “a very clear mandate”.

What coalition to expect

The new government will be formed by a candidate nominated by President Edgars Rinkēvičs. LSM sees a coalition of the United List with the National Alliance and New Unity as most likely — 59 seats in total, a solid working majority. United List politicians, according to Ukrinform, have already spoken in favour of working with exactly these partners. Latvia First, Sovereign Power and the Progressives are likely to end up in opposition.

Sharing out ministries

According to LSM, the number of United List ministers will grow, but Kulbergs will likely leave key ministries such as Defence and the Interior to his partners. The broadcaster explains this pragmatically: shared responsibility is useful when things do not go to plan. Since the new coalition is likely to resemble the previous one (minus ZZS), forming a government may be quicker than usual.

What it means for Ukraine

The United List’s pledges include strengthening the border with Russia and Belarus and adopting Ukraine’s defence experience, Ukrinform recalls. Latvia is an EU and NATO member that consistently supports Ukraine; the election result does not imply any sharp change of course, and the new majority could make decision-making in Riga faster.

What next

The next big event in Latvian politics is the presidential election in June 2027. The president is elected by the Saeima, not by the public, so the United List’s dominance in parliament will also shape that choice, LSM notes.

Why it matters

The Baltic states are on the front line of the confrontation with Russia, and their domestic stability matters for the security of NATO’s entire eastern flank. A convincing win by a party that openly talks about defence and Ukrainian experience signals that Latvian voters back a tough line on Moscow.