Neptune strike on Volgograd region airfield: Ukraine's Navy destroys two Su-34s

What happened

On 29 October Ukraine’s Navy reported a strike with the Neptune coastal missile system on a Russian air base in Volgograd region. According to the Navy, two Su-34 front-line fighter-bombers were destroyed at the site of the 11th Mixed Aviation Regiment near the settlement of Oktyabrsky (Marinovka airfield). The regiment belongs to the 4th Mixed Aviation Division of Russia’s 4th Air Force and Air Defence Army.

The Navy stressed that the Su-34 is one of the main platforms Russian tactical aviation uses to drop guided bombs on Ukrainian cities, defensive positions and frontline areas. “The Ukrainian Navy continues to strike enemy military targets, reducing the enemy’s ability to conduct combat operations against Ukraine,” the statement said.

Zelensky: two missile strikes

After a meeting of the Stavka, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine had carried out two missile strikes that destroyed two Su-34s and hit an Iskander launcher. He said the Stavka had set additional tasks for “long-range sanctions,” which “work much faster.” “Everyone could see in recent weeks that Ukraine’s long-range capability is producing results,” he said. No public details were given about the second target.

How many Su-34s Russia has left

Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) published its estimate of the Russian fleet. Since the start of the full-scale invasion 43 Su-34s have been destroyed and seven more damaged. As of 22 October Russia’s aerospace forces had about 140 aircraft of this type in various versions, including the upgraded Su-34M.

HUR says the destroyed jets equal roughly 2.5–3 years of production, as Russian industry is estimated to build 14–18 of them a year. Replacing losses requires a long production cycle, significant funding and specialised industrial cooperation. Intelligence also cautions that fleet size alone does not reflect real combat power: technical condition, trained crews and maintenance capacity matter too.

How Russia replenishes the fleet

Serial production of the Su-34 is concentrated at the Chkalov aircraft plant in Novosibirsk. Priority goes to the upgraded Su-34M, while part of the capacity is taken up by an export contract for Su-34MEs for Algeria. At the same time, HUR says Russia’s aerospace forces received 22 new Su-34s between 22 October 2025 and 22 October 2026 — more than the estimated annual output.

Why it matters

The Su-34 is the main carrier of the guided glide bombs Russia uses daily against Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy and Donetsk regions. The bombs are released from a distance that keeps the aircraft relatively safe, making them hard to intercept. Striking airfields deep inside Russia is one way to reduce the number of such sorties.

It is not the first Neptune strike on Su-34s this month. In mid-October Ukraine’s armed forces reported hitting six Su-34Ms at Borisoglebsk airfield in Voronezh region. Russia had not commented on the Marinovka strike at the time of publication.

Context

The strike coincided with one of the hardest days for Ukrainian cities: on 29 October Russian drones killed 19 people in Dnipro, Chernihiv and Kremenchuk. Zelensky links stepped-up long-range strikes on Russian military targets with the need to force Moscow to abandon its terror against civilians.